Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 112         www.taheriexchange.com   8th of October 2010
worldfx

"B.O.C. less likely to increase interest rates in the coming months "..

"There is no denying the fact that employment conditions have cooled"


More proof the Canadian economy has cooled emerged Friday with labour data indicating a net 6,600 jobs were lost in September, giving the Bank of Canada additional reasons to refrain from rate hikes in the coming months.

Yet there were bright spots within the data — such as a 37,000 addition in full-time jobs — that gave analysts encouragement about the health of the Canadian economy.

The unemployment rate dropped, to 8%, although that was driven by more people opting to stop looking for a job and, among other things, return to school. Plus, the headline job loss was below the consensus call for a 10,000 gain in September.

September marked the second time in three months the economy reported monthly net job losses, following an amazing six-month streak beginning last January in which monthly job growth averaged 51,000. A total 19,900 jobs were created for the three-month period ended Sept. 30.

“There is no denying the fact that employment conditions have cooled markedly from the piping hot pace seen as recently as the spring,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “Renewed solid job gains will be tough to come by in the months ahead amid the lacklustre pace of underlying growth that has spilled over from the U.S. into Canada.”

Jonathan Basile, vice-president of economics at Credit Suisse in New York, said the labour market is now “taking a pause,” just like economic growth did in the second quarter, followed a contraction in July. “This supports our call for the same from the Bank of Canada at its next Oct 19 meeting.”

A string of weaker-than-expected economic data has led markets to place very low odds on rate hike this month from the Bank of Canada.

Still, economists suggested the headline jobs data masked some underlying strength. Most important, full-time jobs gained for a second straight month, by a robust 37,100, compared to a 43,700 drop in part-time employment. Scotia Capital said this likely represented a conversion of part-time work to full-time work, which is a “mild positive” as it expands hours worked. Plus, full-time jobs are generally better paying and more stable.

A sharp decline of 18,400 self-employed jobs -- which people without jobs tend to move toward if they believe prospects will stay bleak -- was offset by modest increases of 5,300 in private-sector payrolls, and a 6,500 gain in public-sector payrolls.

On a sector basis, jobs fell in the service-producing sector, 10,100, and but advanced in the key goods-producing industries by 3,500 -- led by a 8,200 gain in the key manufacturing region.

Over the course of 2010, the rate of part-time job creation has outpaced full-time and, as a consequence, the number of hours worked remains below the peak level hit prior to the economic downturn, said Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

“At the same time, debt levels have been rising with the household debt-to-income ratio hitting a new high early this year,” she said. “The prospect of more moderate growth going forward suggests that labour market conditions will improve more slowly in the months ahead and that the unemployment rate will only gradually drift lower.”


"USD- Non-Farm payrolls lower than expectation.."

 "CAD- ..Unemployment rate drops...yet new employment numbers are slightly weaker"

bulls-bears

The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September, reflecting a decline in government payrolls that shows the damage being done by rising fiscal deficits.

Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, less than forecast, underscoring the concern expressed by some Federal Reserve policy makers that the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s has been too slow and may require easier monetary policy. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project unemployment will average at least 9 percent through 2011, which may restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

“The pace of this employment rebound has been quite sluggish,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “Employers are still very cautious about hiring.”


The unemployment rate slipped to 8 per cent in September from 8.1 per cent as fewer people, particularly youth, looked for work, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The report shows Canadian employers are taking a pause in hiring, after a strong start to the year. Over the past year, total employment has risen by 349,000 positions, recouping the jobs lost during the recession, though that’s been led by part-time work. Part-time employment has grown by 4.6 per cent, outstripping 1.5-per-cent growth in full time.

The report “is not nearly as dire as the headline decline would suggest, given the strength in full-time and private sector jobs,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. However, “there is no denying the fact that employment conditions have cooled markedly from the piping hot pace seen as recently as the spring.”

Solid job gains will be “tough to come by” in the coming months as the lacklustre pace of growth in the U.S. has spilled over into Canada.

In September, part-time work fell by 44,000 while full-time jobs rose by 37,000 in full time.

Youth employment fell, again. Employment among 15- to 24-year-olds fell by 42,000, led by Ontario. “Losses in recent months have erased gains from the start of the year, bringing youth employment back to levels of a year ago,” the agency said.

For workers aged 25 to 54, increases among men outweighed a drop among women. Employment levels among women are now similar to a year ago, while they’ve risen 2.3 per cent for men (who were harder hit through the recession).

Older workers continue to land jobs. Men and women aged 55 and over posted employment increases in September, with increases of 20,000 for men and 17,000 for women. Over the past year, employment for this age group has surged by 7.7 per cent among men and 5.9 per cent among women -- the highest rates of growth among all demographic groups.

By province, Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island all saw employment declines. Ontario’s jobless rate is 8.8 per cent. Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador as well as Nova Scotia posted gains, Statscan said.

Employment in most industries was little changed. Employment slipped in professional, scientific and technical services, after rising for much of the past year, while it rose in transportation and warehousing.

Wage growth hasn’t changed. Average hourly wages for employees rose 2.3 per cent last month from a year ago, a similar pace to the previous two months.

The split between public and private-sector jobs was unchanged in September. Over the past year, growth in the public sector has swelled by 3.7 per cent, outpacing the private sector, with 2.4-per-cent growth. That composition may change in the year ahead as governments of all levels trim budgets and slow hiring.

Economists had expected 10,000 new jobs would be added last month.




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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro jumped to 1.3982 after the release of the NFP report but reversed sharply and fell more than 120 pips in a few minutes from the highs. Currently is trading back below 1.3900, approaching to daily lows that lie at 1.3830.


USD: 
With the barrage of U.S. data...majority weaker than expected numbers..the USD/CAD has been rising and falling. Changing trends from bearish to bullish...

Today's volatility will continue once the North American equity markets open in a few mins...if investors see no improvement in the economy..we may see the USD continue on it's bullish trend.


CAD:  The CAD has had a tremendous week...and currently still good buying rates for USD. We may see a reversal of the bearish trend that was continuing this week. Overall, the Canada jobs number didn't help the CAD.

Expected range for the USD/CAD today...lower 1.0100 to mid or possibly higher 1.0200 levels.

Has the bearish trend ended for the pair and will we see a rise up to 1.0300 or close to 1.0400 levels next week?

GBP:  The Pound's retreat from 1.6000 high yesterday has been contained at 1.5825/30 support area, as the pair bounced up following higher than expected producer price readings, returning to 1.5860 area.

JPY:
  The Dollar retreat from 84.00 resistance area extended yesterday below 82.85 to hot a fresh 15-year low at 85.10, and the pair has remained trading sideways, between 85.15 and 85.50 during Friday's Asian and European sessions.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0144   Resistance: 1.0270

CAD/JPY

Support:  79.79   Resistance:  81.00

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.4063  Resistance: 1.4265

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3760  Resistance: 1.4024

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5825  Resistance: 1.5938

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment rate data.
CAD - Unemployment Rate & Housing Starts data.

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