From Dennis and Jane Guertin | Guertin Family Realty | (952) 442-1300 |
Are you wondering how the real estate market will fare this year? Here's a look at what some top housing experts expect to see in 2017.
Dennis and Jane Guertin
(952) 442-1300 Direct

Top Housing Market Predictions for 2017

Home Prices Will Rise, But Not As Fast

The general consensus is that the U.S. housing market will be strong in 2017, albeit with slowing momentum compared to last year. Zillow expects home prices to rise by around 3.6 percent in 2017, while CoreLogic, a data and analytics company, expects prices to go up by over 5 percent.

As of last November, Zillow and CoreLogic were reporting 6.5 percent and 7.1 percent year-to-year increases in home prices for 2016, respectively.

Interest Rates Will Go Up

Even though the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by .25 percent in December, the average 30-year mortgage rate is still just slightly over 4 percent, which is extremely low by historic standards. Kiplinger expects the 30-year mortgage rate to reach around 4.6 percent by the end of 2017.

A rate increase of .50 percent means a borrower pays around $30 more per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 of loan amount.

Getting a Mortgage Will Be Easier

Mortgage loans should become easier to obtain in 2017 due to some lenders using less stringent qualification guidelines. Originations for home purchases are expected to increase by around 10 percent in 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Suburbs and Second-Tier Cities Will Be Hot Spots

Rising home prices are pushing buyers into outlying areas, leading to an increased demand for properties in second-tier cities and walkable, amenity-rich suburbs.

Those types of areas are expected to see increased residential growth of nearly 80 percent over the next ten years, compared to 15 percent in more urban areas, according to John Burns Consulting.

"First-Time-Buyer" Homes May Be Harder to Find

More millennial home buyers are expected to shop for a first home in 2017, but they may find a shortage of entry-level housing. Trulia reported that the number of first-time-buyer homes for sale dropped 12.1 percent in 2016, compared to a 9.1 percent decrease for all residential inventory combined.

The good news is that they will probably have fewer cash buyers to compete against. The share of cash buyers dropped to below 30 percent in 2016 for the first time since 2007, according to CoreLogic, and could be on its way to a more traditional 25 percent.

Rental Rates Will Rise, But at a Slower Pace

Zillow expects rents to rise by around 1.5 percent nationwide in 2017, and in general to carry less steam compared to 2016. Some top-tier markets such as Miami, FL and San Jose, CA have actually seen rental rates drop in the last few months. Experts attribute the change to increased multi-family rental supply, along with the new but growing trend of "co-living" that has taken away some heft on the demand side.

It Will Still Be Cheaper to Buy than to Rent In Most Areas

Buying a home will continue to be a better deal than renting in most markets, according to Trulia. The report states that at current home price levels, mortgage rates would have to increase to at least 5.3 percent (or more, depending on location) before buying becomes more expensive than renting - at least for people who put 20 percent down and stay in a home at least seven years.

And, We'll Still Need to Read Between the Lines...

News headlines can be misleading when it comes to the housing market. At times during 2016 we saw articles stating "Home sales are down", implying that the housing market was taking a hit. In reality, a drop in the number of home sales can mean two very different things:

If homes are lingering on the market and buyers feel comfortable taking their time, then yes, it's a sign that the market may be softening. However, if home prices are rising and/or buyers are competing for listings, this means there is strong demand and what's holding back home sales is probably a lack of supply.

"Hot market" and "cool market" scenarios require very different approaches from both buyers and sellers, which is why it's important to understand what's really going on behind the headlines.

What the lawyers make us say: The information here is not presented as expert legal or financial advice. Please use your best judgment and consult professionals when necessary.
Recent Market Highlights
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- U.S. home prices rose 5.6 percent year-to-year in October, according to a recent S&P/Case-Shiller report. They rose 7.1 percent year-to-year in November, according to CoreLogic, a data and analytics company.

- The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is slightly over 4 percent.

The November Pending Home Sales Index dropped .4 percent year-to-year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
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Sometimes real estate-related, sometimes not... these are assorted links that come in handy:

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If the thought of QuickBooks makes you want to lie down and take a nap, these easy-to-use Excel templates for business accounting might be a great alternative. (There's also an inexpensive Personal Budget version.)

Infogram Infographic Maker
An easy way to create professional-looking infographics and interactive charts for websites and presentations.

Touchdown Pizza Recipe
Just in time for the Super Bowl, here's a great-tasting and somewhat different appetizer. (Quick tip: Buffalo wing sauce is different from regular hot sauce.)

The Lighter Side

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Photo courtesy of

Proving that heroes come in all shapes and sizes, nine-year-old Mauco Abeiro charmed hearts worldwide when he found an injured street dog near his home in Argentina and offered his favorite toy for sale on Facebook to raise money for a trip to the vet.

Click here or on the image to read what happened. It's a great story to start the New Year off with!

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Have a great day,

Dennis and Jane Guertin
Broker/Owner, REALTOR®, CRS, SFR, CBR, e-PRO, GRI, BA
Guertin Family Realty

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