We Made a Bold Push, Turning the MPI into a Prediction Monster!
The Mental Performance Index (MPI) rates total football team performance including mental performance. Six years ago, I began transforming this new method of team performance rating and statistic (which I wrote about in a book in 2011 and revised in 2013) into a mechanism to predict games.
My idea was that if this mental information is indeed important and vital to winning, and not many in the media or football are clued into it yet, then I have some very rare and unique information that will lead to a higher abiity to predict games in the future than really anyone out there.
Despite my extreme confidence in this proposal, I worked tirelessly for 6 years in my free time, studying 40 years of past NFL games with advanced computer programs to refine this method. This year, for the first time, I launched a new site at
www.FootballShrink.com where I track and record my predictions using this method. I realize that many hundreds of games will be needed to estabish this as successful, but I am excited to say that so far all systems are go and it is working!
The MPI has been used to predict 57 NFL games in advance so far, and the record currently stands at 32-25-1 (56%, +461). Anyone who knows football prognostication will say two things:
(1) 56% is 4 percentage points better than the best handicappers in the world at this. When I looked at the success of the world's best 37 handicappers at picking sides against a spread, I found that their overall average is 52.14%. It does not change much when you look at the best indiviudal handicappers. When analyzed over 1000 games, they are lucky to be at 52% and they are often less.
(2) 57 games is too small a sample size to draw significant conclusions, but my confidence in the MPI is sky high. We are beating the best in the world by 4 percentage points and I will continue to do this prediction study until we have a huge sample size. If, as I suspect, we are still defeating the best in the world at this, there will only be one solid conclusion:
MENTAL PERFORMANCE IS INDEED THE KEY TO WINNING!
I know this already. I see it every single day in my sports psychology practice. But I am now this year proving it empirically with the MPI study!
THANKS FOR LISTENING!
Please help me spread the word. Get people to the football shrink site! It is a thrill to have this tiger by the tail making picks each week. It will be even more of a thrill if I am correct and this method proves to be the best in the world at picking games. I know it probably will, but the jury is still out and I refuse to take credit for it until the numbers validate it 100%
So far, so good! Tune into the site at:
http://www.FootballShrink.com
Let's watch as the amazed sports world gradually realizes that mental performance was the key all along! Mental skills can no longer be ignored!
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