In Week Four We Went 3-1!  

I will take a 3-1 week all day and every day! 

We were correct on the Jaguars, Browns and Panthers and we missed on the Vikings.  The Overall Record is Now 64-48-4 (57.27%, +1152), so we are now 16 games above .500 and rolling along!  Please don't interpret this as arrogance. I am well aware of how difficult this challenge is to essentially beat the coin flip! I have mocked many NFL seasons of picks and you would be shocked at how many times even in good overall seasons there can be a 1-9 or 2-8 run ... but it all usually evens out. 

We now have 112 solid games in the tank, but there is so much farther to go even if it all looks great at this point. 

For week 5, I had planned to wait until Thursday, but the lines for a couple of these games looked really good and I had to jump on them. 

Here are the picks for week 5, and all games are played on Sunday:

(1)  Take the Buccaneers +3.5 away against the Saints (Heritage, -108). 

(2) Take the Raiders +5 home against the Bears (CG Technology, -110).  

(3) Take the Redskins +15.5 home against the Patriots (Heritage, -108). 

(4) Take the Jets +14 away against the Eagles (Bookmaker, -115).

That's two home teams and two away teams, and all underdogs, and if you are wondering, I thought the lines looked particularly good on the first two games above!

I'm always a little scared about taking those weaker teams with the big points, but over many many hundreds of past picks, there is indeed an advantage to taking those big points. Sometimes teams with a big lead will put in backups late in the game, and the losing team will rally and score a couple unanswered touchdowns and achieve what is called a "backdoor cover" and I have seen this many many times. Even if you have the Patriots in week 5, for example, and they are destroying the Redskins by 27 points in the 4th quarter, it is not at all uncommon for the Skins to get a couple cheap touchdowns and before you know it Washington has beaten the spread.  

In review, we are now 64-48-4 overall!  

Good Luck and enjoy the games this week!