In Week Three We Went 2-3.   

We called it correctly on the Panthers and Jets and we had the right team with the 49ers, but they won by 4 instead of the needed 6 to cover. The others games were looking good until late. All in all, I expect many 2-3 weeks when we are shooting for only a few percentage points above chance. In fact there will be weeks where we go 1-4 or 0-5 ... so last week was really more par for the course than bad even though I always want to go 5-0!  The key is the long-term record and whether this little monster I created with the MPI can call games against the spread over many hundreds of games successfully. Remember the old principle in statistics that the higher the n, or # of observatons, the closer you get to the true population mean. 

The Overall Record is Now 61-47-4 (56.48%, +962), so we are already 14 games above .500!   We are doing it one game at a time! 

Here are the picks for week 4, and all games are played on Sunday:

(1)  Take the Jaguars +3.5 away against the Broncos (Jazz, -120).

(2) Take the Browns +7 away against the Ravens (BetPhoenix, -115). 

(3) Take the Vikings +2.5 away against the Bears (CG Technology, -110)

(4) Take the Panthers +4.5 away against the Texans (Heritage, -108).

There you have it! All road underdogs this week 4. 

The MPI system is well oiled and working with full efficiency now that we have gone past week 3. When the programs analyze the match-ups, they are taking into account everything now that has happened in weeks 1,2, and 3, including strength of schedule elements and about 15 other factors, some mental, some physical, and I have found that the success rates in weeks 3-17 tend to be a little higher than in weeks 1-2 since there is real and recent data rather than more general trends. 

In review, we are now 61-47-4 overall!  

Good Luck and enjoy the games this week!