NFL PICKS FOR WEEK 3
We skipped the Thursday night game as the metrics showed that game almost impossible to predict, and sure enough there was a major surprise as the Miami Dolphins thrashed the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-13, Miami's first 10 point win in more than 3 years! Never let your emotions get involved in predicting games. It is the kiss of death. I've learned that the hard way in buidling an algorithm. I'm still excited that Miami is beginning to play football again and Brian Flores looks like the real deal as head coach down here in South Florida.
As you might recall, we went 6-3 against the spread last week to raise our 2020 record to 11-4, and the overall record to an astounding 123 - 83 - 16 (59.71%, +3155). This is unbelievable 60% success over more than 200 games, but will it continue? My many studies and analyses suggest that it is unlikely to stay around the 60% mark. My algorithm in extensive testing over 40 past years seemed to produce success more in the 55 to 56% range, which is also phenomenal. So in many ways we are currently outperforming our algorithm. Nothing to complain about, but it keeps me humble to know that this excitement is probably due at least in part to some early luck.
Keep in mind, however, that the best handicappers in the world, in picking sides against a known line, get close to 53% if they are a rock star. That is why I firmly believe that we have developed the most successful football prediction machine ever created. Only time will tell, but we are obviously in the right direction! And if anyone ever tries to tell you that they get 65 or 70% success in picking sides against a spread, you have discovered a total fraud. It is simply impossible to do that over a large sample of games.
In this 3rd week of the season, we rolled the dice again with a total of 9 picks! I am going to get burned one of these weeks, but let's see if the luck continues. Here are those 9 picks, all for Sunday games:
Take the Raiders +7 away (-130, 5 Dimes) to cover against the Patriots. I am not confident about this pick, so I will blame the algorithm. The Patriots are due for a big rebound and the Raiders might have been playing above their talent.
Take the Rams +2.5 away (-105, BoDog) to cover against the Bills. I am also fearful of this pick. The Rams are coming all the way across the country and the Bills at home are tough.
Take the Steelers -3.5 at home (-110, Jazz) to cover against the Texans. I love this pick and agree with my machine!
Take the Titans -2.5 away (-103, 5 Dimes) to cover against the Vikings. I like this pick a lot too. The Vikings are struggling and Ryan Tannehill is a winner.
Take the Bengals +6.5 away against the Eagles (-105, 5 Dimes) to cover against the Eagles. I can live with this pick. The Eagles might win, but the Bengals should keep it close with that budding superstar at QB.
Take the Bears +3.5 away (-103, 5 Dimes) to cover against the Falcons. I am counting on Atlanta to keep playing like Atlanta, but you always have fear going up against Matt Ryan ... so I am not so sure here! I will say this ... the metrics were actually the strongest on this game .. so the bears had the numbers more than in any other game which surprised me some.
Take the gunslinging Cardinals -5.5 at home (-105, 5 Dimes) to cover against the Lions. I love this pick.
Take the Buccaneers and Tom Brady -6 away (-115, YouWager) to cover against the Broncos in that thin Denver air.
Finally, take the Packers +4.5 away (-110, BoDog) to cover against the Saints. I love this line, and Drew Brees is starting to show signs of aging, so go Packers!
To get all the picks early each week, go to the offers page at:
https://www.footballshrink.com/offers
If you prefer to get these 9 picks much later in the week for free, you will see them at the Shrinks Picks page at the link below, or in this free newsletter:
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